Simpson Trump wins and stocks go up – Is The US Stock Market Stupid?

The US elected Simpson Trump as its President against the will of its majority intelligence. If years of education was considered in the votes, let’s call it a meritocratic democracy, Hillary would have won. It didn’t happen.

And now that he unfortunately won, the stock market is going sky high. How can anyone explain such a stupid behavior of the intelligent, perfect stock market? Only one explanation, the stupid voters of Simpson Trump are buying all the stocks, believing that they have made a smart decision by electing their preferred cartoon candidate.

How can the profitability of US firms go up if their average cost is going up, but not the revenues? By taking out of the market the low cost minority labor, all these services will have to employ higher paid white American folks who are already employed. Remember that unemployment rates in the US are historically low at 4.9%.

The imported products will have to be replaced by American made higher cost products, bringing back jobs that the Americans did not want to perform any more. Reallocating labor already employed in other sectors to these old manufacturing facilities.

Disrupting the smart trade treaties that Obama was envisioning will damage US exports as well, mainly in higher value added activities.

Now you consider, if Simpson Trump was elected in a low or medium income country like Brazil, he would probably take the country out of its misery considering the unemployment of 12.8% and its stupid macro-economic policies.

Seating on the chair of the White House he will probably make a mess, frustrate the investments of all his voters in 1-2 years and be impeached or recalled as the interest of the US voters are more important than their dreams as they do not come true.


Publicado por

Eduardo Giuliani

Edu é empresário nos setores de agronegócio, bioenergia, venture capital e imobiliário. Trabalhou como consultor pela McKinsey & Co. (1991-97) e investidor pela Advent International (1998-99). Iniciou estudos sobre crescimento econômico em 1994 com o Curso National Economic Strategies de Bruce R. Scott na Harvard Business School (Membro do U.S. Competitiveness Policy Council). Cursou System Dynamics no MIT (1994). Liderou trabalho de produtividade em Telecomunicações e Construção no McKinsey Global Institute (1997). Engenheiro de Produção pela Escola Politécnica da USP (1989). MBA pela Harvard Business School (1995). Tenente da Reserva do Exército (1985). Casado. Três filhos. Tri-atleta.

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